This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight PPV card at Vegas. DraftKings has some strong contests for us to win a lot of money from this week and I can not wait to chase these big prizes. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $50k goes to 1st place with a total of $250k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier only tournament for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 admissions that match. I won my first chair into it a week and will try to get my 2nd and 3rd seats this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the very best GPP this week and then toss 100 or so entries at the $50k decoration, and then I will probably take a few shots in the Qualifier. I’ll also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to get a fantastic amount of play into money games.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week Together with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of the week — Jon Jones — $9,600
Jones is a lock for the money game lineup this week in his -800 betting line. I’ll take that free square foot and move on. He must dominate this battle and he can complete it on the toes or the floor. I expect him to score over 100-points and I am perfectly fine with paying 9.6k for it. When I am making lineups, I want to try to have at least 10x from each fighter. Together with Jones being 9.6k, I want at least 96 points from him. That is the way I look at it. If this was a 3-round fight and I did not think Jones could find a finish then perhaps he just scores 80-85 DK points in a win, and at $9.6k I wouldn’t want that. Nonetheless, this is a potential 5-round fight, and that I really do expect Jones to control, so that cost is fine with me. For GPPs, I think you can get from Jon Jones because he’ll be quite highly possessed. If he’s 50% owned by the area and he only scores 85-90 DK points, then will pretty much kill half the area since that would not be enough points to put him on that $50k lineup.
GPP play of this week — Ben Askren — $9,000
If Ben Askren wins this battle it’ll be from his wrestling. He’s among the best wrestlers in MMA history and now he is finally getting an opportunity in the UFC after controlling every business he’s been in. He won’t want to strike for long against Robbie Lawler, so that I expect him to shoot for takedowns straight away and chain wrestle till he gets them. When he gets top control there is not going to become a lot Robbie can do on the floor and he must take a beating so long as it is on the mat. On DraftKings, every takedown is 5 points compared to 0.5 points to get a substantial strike. A man like Askren can go out there and get 10 takedowns in 15-minutes and that is what makes him a fantastic play if he can come up with the victory.
Play of this week — Diego Sanchez — $7,100
This really isn’t the Diego Sanchez of older, but I believe he has what it takes to beat Mickey Gall. On the feet, the quantity from Sanchez should win it there as long as he doesn’t get pumped out. The chin of Diego is what I worry about most these days, but Gall is not much of a striker and I don’t see him becoming knockout. In addition, I don’t understand that Gall can get takedowns, and I think Sanchez would be the likely guy to be on top if the struggle hits the floor. There is A entry Gall’s best chance at a win here and Sanchez hasn’t been submitted. We have to have underdogs within our DK lineups and at $7.1k Diego enables us to pay up for those guys like Jon Jones or even Ben Askren. If he could grind a determination triumph here I think he can become 10x that wages and when we can get a win against him in that inexpensive salary, I think we will probably be in line for that $50k win when we hit our additional 5 spots.
Fade of the week — Anthony Smith ($6,600)
I might wind up using each fighter since I’m making so many lineups this week, but Anthony Smith is the man I need the least of. I try to acquire a favored for you guys as my fade of the week but I do not believe there are any need to fade favorites this week. Instead, I am going with the 1 fighter I do not think stands a opportunity. I believe that a fluke KO is the only path to success for Smith and he really doesn’t have the one punch/kick power it would take to pull that off. I would be amazed when Smith pulled off the upset this week and if I was making 20 or less lineups, he would be a simple fade.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle on the card and give my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all my pick predictions, then you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 58-37 to get +177.62un (+$17,762) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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